In a new analysis paper for Friedrich Ebert Stiftung New York, ‘Code and Conflict: Next Steps towards Regulating Autonomous­ Weapons Systems,’ Article 36’s Elizabeth Minor argues that a strong basis in policy discussion is now available for negotiations on a legally binding instrument. Moreover, with geopolitical tensions on the rise, strengthening international norms is more crucial than ever: and by negotiating a treaty on autonomous ­weapons systems, the international community has a clear opportunity to reduce certain risks and create an important building block for a safer future.

The main conclusions of the analysis are:

• Autonomy in the use of force that erodes meaningful human control risks legal violations, humanitarian harm, and unforeseen escalation. With rising geopolitical tensions and evidence of harm from emerging technologies, legal rules setting standards of behaviour on autonomous weapons systems would reduce risks and enhance civilian protection – even if not all states join
• Policy discussions show a legal instrument supported by a broad range of countries could now be negotiated – though certain topics such as systems targeting people still need to be more fully addressed
• In 2025, building on existing leadership, including from the global south, states with similar policy orientations including those with military interests in autonomous weapons systems should now develop their cross-regional partnerships and work with civil society to take the opportunity towards setting strong, protective international norms.
• Informal consultations under the UN General Assembly that are taking place next week during 12-13 May are an opportunity for states to recognise the progress made so far, consider the additional rules that will be needed, and commit to moving forward.

To move forward, the paper recommends:

• States and other stakeholders in the international discussion – including international organisations, academia, civil society and industry – should recognise that the current state of policy discussions on autonomous weapons systems now allows negotiations to start on a legally binding instrument that would align with the broad priorities of a wide range of states.
• Amongst states with broadly similar policy orientations, states and stakeholders should develop stronger partnerships across different groupings to build a common vision and will towards such a legally binding instrument.
• States and stakeholders should engage with international policy discussions to improve draft texts and common understandings and assess whether current proposals would be a good basis for working towards international rules that would have their national support.
• States and stakeholders should also examine the rules that are needed to respond to ethical, legal, security and other issues that have had less attention in the policy discussion on autonomous weapons systems, rather than looking at general concerns. Discussions under the UN General Assembly are an important opportunity to do this.
• States that have military interests in autonomous weapons systems should assess the benefits of non-regulation versus regulating these systems, for security and civilian protection.
• States and stakeholders should assess how the legal regulation of autonomous weapons systems should be one aspect of a comprehensive normative and regulatory response to increasing autonomy in the use of force more broadly.

Download the analysis paper as a PDF.

Featured image: Stop Killer Robots raises awareness outside the UN in New York around the UN General Assembly resolution on autonomous weapons in 2024 © Stop Killer Robots